Hurricane Melissa - the alarm bell of a climate out of control

Hurricane Melissa, the most violent weather event to ever hit Jamaica, is considered by scientists to be a direct product of human-induced climate change. A new study published last week by researchers at Imperial College London shows that a storm of such intensity has become four times more likely under current climate conditions. Melissa, which reached categories 3 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, devastated the islands of the Caribbean Sea, causing at least 30 deaths, 20 of them in Haiti. In addition to the human toll, the storm destroyed electrical infrastructure, communication networks and agricultural crops in Jamaica, prompting the government to declare a national state of emergency. "Human-induced climate change has clearly made Hurricane Melissa stronger and more destructive,” explained Professor Ralf Toumi, the study's lead author and director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the University of Cambridge.

According to the analysis, global warming caused by fossil fuel burning has increased not only the likelihood but also the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes. The researchers simulated millions of theoretical storm tracks to estimate the frequency of extreme events in a cooler climate compared to the current one.

The results are worrying: in a world without climate change, a hurricane like Melissa would hit Jamaica once every 8,100 years; under current conditions, such a phenomenon could occur once every 1,700 years; wind speeds have increased, on average, by 19 km/h compared to a pre-industrial world. "There are limits to the capacity of countries to prepare and adapt. Adaptation is essential, but we cannot offset the effects of global warming indefinitely. We need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” warns Toumi.

• A Hotter Planet

According to scientific data, the average global temperature has risen by 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels - extremely close to the 1.5°C threshold considered the critical limit for avoiding climate catastrophe. The effects of this increase are already being seen: more frequent and stronger hurricanes, wildfires, heat waves and severe droughts, all fueled by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In Jamaica, authorities estimate damage at more than $4 billion, and thousands of people have been left homeless. Coastal communities have been wiped out, and rebuilding could take years. "This is not just a storm - it is a clear signal that our planet is entering an irreversible risk zone,” the Jamaican prime minister said at a press conference. Imperial College experts are calling on governments around the world to accelerate the energy transition and halt investment in fossil fuels. Without massive emissions cuts, they say, hurricanes like Melissa will become the rule, not the exception.

Climate adaptation and resilience measures: Reconfiguring infrastructure - building buildings that can withstand extreme winds, upgrading power grids and drainage systems to prevent flooding; Evacuation plans and community education - educating the population on how to behave in the event of a hurricane, creating shelters and early warning systems; Protecting natural ecosystems - coral reefs and mangroves reduce the force of waves and protect coastlines. Their conservation is essential; Green investments and climate finance - accessing international funds for renewable energy projects, reforestation and climate change adaptation; Regional collaboration - Caribbean countries need to develop common mechanisms for post-disaster response and reconstruction.

"Adaptation is not resignation, but wisdom. We need to prepare better, but also attack the cause - fossil fuel dependence,” concludes the Grantham Institute report.